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07/04/2009 - (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - The cellar dwellers from the AL Central and AL West will collide once again this evening when the Cleveland Indians host the Oakland Athletics at Progressive Field.
Toeing the rubber this evening for Oakland will be Vin Mazzaro, who is winless in his last four starts. The last time the New Jersey native was on the bump he surrendered three runs on five hits in five innings of work. He walked four batters, but also struck out eight.
Surprisingly, in three road starts this year the right-hander is 1-1 with a solid 2.45 earned run average. This will be Mazzaro's first career outing against Cleveland.
As for the Indians, they will turn to Carl Pavano, who is also mired in a personal slump, losing three of his last four starts. The last time the right-hander was on the hill he tossed seven strong innings against Chicago, but still suffered the defeat. Pavano allowed just two runs in the contest and struck out six batters, while walking none.
This will be the second-ever start for Pavano against Oakland. In his lone showdown with the A's he tossed seven innings, allowing three runs on seven hits and three walks. It was a solid performance, but he did not factor in the decision.
On Friday, Shin-Soo Choo went 4-for-5 with two homers, a career-high seven runs batted in and scored four times, as the Indians crushed the Athletics, 15-3.
"[Choo's] a real good all-around ballplayer. Whether on the bases, in the outfield or home plate, he's hungry to learn. He takes a lot of pride in his game, and he obviously has a lot of ability on top of that," Indians manger Eric Wedge said.
Travis Hafner belted a solo shot and walked twice, while Asdrubal Cabrera had a pair of doubles and three RBI for Cleveland, which snapped a five-game slide, but have only three wins in its last 16 games.
David Huff (4-3) picked up the win after working six innings. The rookie left- hander allowed eight hits and three runs, struck out four and walked one, and has won four of his last five starts.
Nomar Garciaparra had two hits, including a double and an RBI for the Athletics, who have dropped seven of nine.
Trevor Cahill (5-7) was pinned with the loss after getting raked for eight runs -- five earned -- on six hits in 3 2/3 innings. The right-hander walked four and struck out two.
"[Cahill] didn't throw enough strikes. He was behind in the count way too much," A's manager Bob Geren said. "He has not been in the [strike] zone as much as he needs to be."
The Tribe took five of nine meetings with Oakland last season, including a 4-2 mark as the host. Cleveland has won 10 of the last 14 matchups versus the Athletics at home.
<< Rookie hurlers face off in Anaheim
(Sportsbook Betting Lines) - The Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim will take to the field
this evening, as they host the Baltimore Orioles in the second matchup of a
three-game stint at Angel Stadium.
Sean O'Sullivan has been a solid fill in for an Ange
<< Lincecum goes after third straight complete game against Astros
(Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Tim Lincecum hopes for the same type of run support San
Francisco provided Ryan Sadowski in the opener of this set when the Giants
play the middle test of their three-game series with the Houston Astros at
AT&T Park.
<< Report: Clemens' lawyer claims he passed steroid test in '03
New York, NY (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Seven-time Cy Young Award winner Roger Clemens
was reportedly not among the 100-plus players who tested positive for
performance-enhancing substances in 2003, when the league conducted an
anonymo
<< Giants option INF Downs; activate INF Aurilia
San Francisco, CA (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Following the Giants' 13-0 win over the
Astros, the team optioned infielder Matt Downs to Triple-A Fresno to make room
for infielder Rich Aurilia, who was activated from the bereavement list.
The 25-ye
Moyer shoots for third straight win in middle tilt with Mets >>
(Sportsbook Betting Lines) - The Philadelphia Phillies hope Jamie Moyer can give them
the same type of effort that Rodrigo Lopez did on Friday, when they continue
their three-game series against the New York Mets at Citizens Bank Park.
Lopez (1-0), w
Duke goes for win No. 9 against Fish >>
(Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Zach Duke goes after his ninth win of the season this
evening when the Pittsburgh Pirates continue their three-game series with the
Florida Marlins at Land Shark Stadium.
Duke has been one of the best left-handers in the l
Home Cooking: Cubs target seventh straight home win against Brewers >>
(Sportsbook Betting Lines) - The Chicago Cubs have picked the perfect time to get hot.
Today, they try to win their seventh straight game at home and their fourth
consecutive game overall, as they continue a four-game set with the Milwaukee
Brewers at W
Sibling smash: Serena bests Venus to win Wimbledon >>
Wimbledon, England (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - In an overpowering performance, Serena
Williams bested her older sister, Venus, in straight sets to win the title at
Wimbledon for a third time.
The 27-year-old Serena denied her sibling a three-peat
There is little doubt that the NFL is where the sportsbooks see the most action and also make the most loot. The NFL possesses betting friendly attributes that are unlike any of the other major sports. First off, there are relatively few teams to keep track of in comparison to college football betting or college basketball. And second, these teams play only once a week which makes staying on top of the results much easier than it is in the daily leagues such as the NBA, NHL, and MLB.
These dynamics, along with the sheer excitement of watching and wagering on football, brings more square action to the table than any of the other sports. Almost every Tom, Dick and Harry in America is an NFL expert in their own mind and that is precisely what the oddsmakers prey upon.
Understanding who bets the games is just as important as understanding which teams are playing the games. The market at times will dictate price, which in the betting world means the oddsmakers cater to the public rather than reality.
Knowing the market inside and out is the basis of our NFL handicapping model. That is, our approach to NFL handicapping is of the contrarian or value seeking variety. We will at times place a higher premium on public sentiment than on the fundamentals. This strategy dictates playing dogs and/or lesser competent teams, or teams the public wants nothing to do with. Or better yet, fading the teams the oddsmakers want you to bet on.
Along these same lines, we carry a similar notion that the first week of the NFL season presents one of the ripest opportunities for the astute gambler. This conflicts with conventional wisdom and/or handicapping lore, as most would say it is better to watch a few games and assess each team before jumping in with both feet. That’s all fine and dandy, but there are some interesting trends to exploit in Week 1 and we’d be remiss to ignore them. Let us quickly explain.
Gone are the days of dynasties, where the same core players stay intact and dominate the league year after year. Free agency and player movements can completely transform teams from one season to the next. In today’s parity-driven NFL, poor teams typically don’t stay poor for all that long and excellent teams must constantly reinvent themselves to stay on top.
The temptation might be to assume prior year results are the best indicator of who is going to cover in Week 1. To Joe Public, playoff teams from the prior season, home teams, favorites, and so one, look even more enticing than usual since there is no current season performance to judge them against. But the question begs: are the oddsmakers setting a trap?
To find the answer, we culled five years worth of Week 1 NFL data. As always, all of our analysis is done from an ATS perspective. The purpose here is to share the most important angles we unearthed and try to explain the logic behind them. So strap on your helmet, throw on your shoulder pads, and follow our lead as we expose some rare holes in the oddsmakers’ line of defense.
Home vs. Away Teams
Over the past five seasons, NFL home teams in Week 1 are just 31-42-7 ATS (42 percent). This of course implies that roadies are a 58 percent winning proposition during this time. The public at large has a tendency to overvalue home teams and this is especially true in Week 1 when there is no current season data to make predictions from. Consequently, the oddsmakers almost surely shade the home teams, by and large making road teams the choice for the value player.
Conclusion: Look long and hard at road teams first when handicapping the opening week.
Price ranges
Favorites are just 31-42-7 ATS (42 percent) in the opening week over the past five NFL seasons (Coincidentally, home teams hold the same ATS record as noted above). This means that underdogs bark at a 58 percent clip. Mid-range favorites performed the worst among our specified price ranges. In particular, favorites priced between –3 1/2 and –6 1/2 are only 8-15 ATS (35 percent) during this time.
The same basic pattern holds true when looking at home favorites (road favorites gravitate towards a 50 percent mean). Home favorites indeed are just 21-32-3 ATS (40 percent) in the first week of NFL action since 1999. Again, mid-range favorites are similarly the poorest performers when we look at home teams. Consider that home teams priced between –3 1/2 and –6 1/2 have stumbled to a 6-13 ATS (32 percent) mark in Week 1 games the past five seasons.
Conclusion: Like home teams, favorites and particularly mid-range favorites are generally overvalued in Week 1.
Playoff teams
It might surprise you to learn that playoff teams from the prior year versus non-playoff teams from the prior year are a mere 16-23-3 (41 percent) ATS in NFL Week 1 games over the past five seasons. Home teams which made the playoffs versus teams which did not make the playoffs from the prior season drop to a meager 7-14-1 ATS (33 percent) during this time.
Why are playoff teams, and in particular those at home, such bad bets the past five openers? Just as the case with home teams and with favorites, oddsmakers intentionally overprice playoff teams in the opening week to compensate for the public’s propensity to over bet them.
This theory holds true just looking at straight-up records from the past season as well. That is, home teams with winning records from the prior season vs. road teams with losing records from the prior season are just 8-13 ATS in Week 1 NFL games since 1999.
Conclusion: Playoff teams from the prior year and in particular, home playoff teams, are overvalued in Week 1 NFL games.
Scoring defense and scoring offense
Do good defenses and for that matter good offenses from the prior season fare better against the number the following year in Week 1 games? Well, sort of. Generally speaking, teams with a solid offense or defense from the prior season tend to do well in the opening week so long as they are on the road. As a host, however, the best offenses and best defenses from the prior year tend to be overvalued in Week 1.
Consider that the top five scoring defenses (i.e. points allowed) from the prior season are a nice 8-4 ATS (66 percent) on the road in NFL openers the past five seasons. Meanwhile, the top five scoring defenses from the prior season are just 3-8-2 ATS (27 percent) as a host in Week 1 during the same time period.
There is no discernable advantage or disadvantage for teams with a top five scoring offense (i.e. points scored) in Week 1 games. However, when we look at scoring offenses from the bottom up (isolating the five worst offenses from the prior season), the results are rather interesting. In particular, teams ranked in the bottom five in scoring offense from the prior season are 9-4-1 ATS (69 percent) when on the road in Week 1.
The logic is simply that the public perception is a poor scoring offensive unit from the year prior will have little chance of winning on the road in Week 1. In turn, the oddsmakers compensate for this perception and these poor offensive teams from the year prior carry extra line value on the Week 1 trail.
Conclusion: Teams with top-ranked defenses from the previous season are good bets when playing on the road, but poor bets when playing at home. Also, teams ranked among the bottom five in scoring offense from the prior season are generally a good value in their Week 1 openers, provided they are playing on the road.
Scoring margin
An exceedingly straightforward way of measuring scoring offense and scoring defense together as a whole is to look at a team's “margin." Margin is simply scoring offense minus scoring defense, which is a fairly clear-cut measure of how a team does on both sides of the ball. Typically, the higher the margin, the better the team.
In this regard, it might seem counterintuitive that teams carrying the higher margin from the prior season in week one matchups are merely 31-42-7 ATS (42 percent). Furthermore, road teams with the higher margin are 14-20-6 ATS (41 percent), while home teams with the higher margin are 17-22-1 ATS (44 percent). Once again, these results line up with the theory that better teams from the prior year are overvalued come opening day of the following season.
Conclusion: “Better” teams, which often boast a higher margin than their opponent, are overvalued the following season in NFL openers.
In sum
Oddsmakers cater NFL betting lines to match public perception and also to bait the public into poor bets. The temptation to use the prior year’s success as a buy sign for how a team will perform against the spread in Week 1 of the following season is an enormous trap.
The fact is, isolating road teams, road dogs, non-playoff teams vs. playoff teams, teams with a losing record or low margin vs. playoff teams or ones with a high margin from the previous year is where the line value resides. Quite simply, taking the road less traveled is your surest path to NFL betting profits.
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